A recent Gallup poll revealed that Kerry's gotten no post-convention bounce, which seems to spell trouble for the donkeys. Explanations abound: already polarized voters, too-early polling numbers, lower TV ratings etc.

What I think is interesting is a stat that isn't getting much play. Among registered voters (916 in this survey) 50% would vote Kerry, and 47% would vote Bush, while likely voters (only 762 voters in the survey) give half their votes to Bush and only 47% to Kerry.

The percentage that I haven't seen getting much play is that subset of people who are registered but are not likely to vote. In this sample (I did the math, which for me was a big deal), there were 152 of those folks, 99 of whom would vote for Kerry, a 2-to-1 advantage over Bush.

So why is the difference so large in this group? Who are these folks, and why are they not voting, if this poll suggests that they are overwhelmingly in favor of a change at 1600?